Injury-depleted Tigers continue set at the Trop

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers are hurting, both on the field and in the American League playoff race.

Faced with the prospect of their longest road losing streak in nearly five years, the battered and badly-struggling Tigers continue a four-game series with the formidable Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Tropicana Field.

Detroit lost for the ninth straight time as the visitor and suffered its 11th defeat in its last 14 overall contests with Tuesday's 3-2 setback to Tampa Bay. That result followed up a 5-0 Rays' victory on Monday in which Matt Garza threw the first no-hitter in franchise history.

The Tigers, playing without three key regulars in right fielder Magglio Ordonez (fractured right ankle), third baseman Brandon Inge (broken hand) and second baseman Carlos Guillen (calf strain), did manage 12 hits in last night's contest but stranded 11 baserunners. The team has averaged a paltry 2.8 runs over the course of their rough 14-game stretch.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, won for the fourth straight time and closed within two games of the New York Yankees for first place in the AL East with last night's verdict. James Shields delivered 6 2/3 strong innings to lead the way for the Rays, while Matt Joyce snapped a 2-2 tie with a clutch RBI double with two outs in the bottom of the sixth.

Shields held the Tigers to two runs and struck out seven before giving way to the Tampa bullpen, with four relievers combining for 2 1/3 scoreless frames to protect the one-run edge.

"I felt I had good command of my stuff tonight," said Shields afterward. "I had my fastball working and that sets up everything else."

Detroit made it interesting in the top of the ninth, however, by loading the bases with one out against Rafael Soriano. The Rays closer got out of the jam, however, by getting Miguel Cabrera to hit into a game-ending double play.

"[Third baseman Evan] Longoria did a great job to help turn that double play," Shields remarked. It was just a real good win for us."

Tigers ace Justin Verlander (12-6) went the distance in a losing cause, with the All-Star hurler allowing three runs on just five hits and striking out six.

Detroit dropped to four games behind first-place Chicago in the AL Central standings and is now a subpar 16-31 away from home. The nine straight road losses are the team's most since a 10-game skid from September 16-October 2, 2005.

Spot starter Eddie Bonine will attempt to get Detroit back in a winning groove when he takes the mound tonight. The versatile right-hander has worked exclusively in middle relief this season, but is needed to begin this game with the Tigers' rotation having been altered by a doubleheader this past Sunday.

Bonine has performed extremely well in his bullpen role, having generated a 4-0 record with a 2.72 earned run average in 31 appearances while holding opposing hitters to a .241 average. He's made nine starts for Detroit over the previous two seasons and gone 3-2 with a 4.38 ERA in those contests.

The 29-year-old's only previous encounter with the Rays came in relief, with Bonine tossing 1 2/3 scoreless innings in a matchup at Tropicana Field last September.

Jeff Niemann draws the assignment for Tampa Bay this evening and will be aiming to bounce back from a loss in his latest start. The towering right- hander allowed just two runs over five innings this past Friday at Cleveland, but was outdueled by the Indians' Fausto Carmona in a rain-shortened 3-1 setback.

Niemann has come out on top more often than not in his second full major league season, as the former first-round draft pick has posted an 8-3 record along with a sound 2.95 ERA in 20 starts. The Rays are an impressive 15-5 in those games. The Rice product is just 3-2 in 10 Tropicana Field appearances this year, but owns a 2.44 ERA during that stretch.

Although the 27-year-old has yet to beat the Tigers over the course of his career, he's surrendered only four runs in a combined 17 2/3 innings in two starts and one relief stint against Detroit. Niemann had a pair of no- decisions versus the Tigers last season, including a showdown in St. Petersburg in September in which he gave up one run while lasting 7 2/3 innings.

Detroit had prevailed in eight of their last 11 meetings with Tampa Bay prior to Garza's no-hitter on Monday and swept a three-game set in their lone trip to Tropicana Field last season.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

Additional basketball lines can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.